Moving forward towards the goal of climate neutrality by 2050, the European Commission is progressing in defining certification methodologies for the Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming (CRCF) Regulation. In this context, the MARVIC project was invited to present its reflections on the methodology for Agriculture at the 5th meeting of the Expert Group on Carbon Removals, held in Brussels last October, to share insights from the project’s progress.

As project coordinator, Greet Ruysschaert (ILVO) presented the MARVIC considerations —focused on soil sampling and enriched by valuable contributions from Martin Knotters. As a first recommendation, Ruysschaert proposed revising the sections on sampling protocols and baselines, shifting from rigid definitions on the number of samples to a broader framework for statistical testing, aimed at supporting decision-making and managing risks for all parties involved. In this sense, it is essential to establish a primary statistical hypothesis and define error rates to account for the probability of unjustly paying or unjustly not being paid, which represent the risks borne by both the producer and the buyer of the certificates. For instance, selecting appropriate error rates could be guided by a cost-benefit analysis.

A second key consideration in the testing framework is the need to clearly distinguish the roles of sampling within a Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system. Sampling may serve different purposes, such as measure-remeasure monitoring, determining initial soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks for modelling, or validating a model-based quantification approach. For example, if the same model and initial soil conditions are used for both the baseline and the project line, the error in the initial SOC measurement would be identical for both. As a result, its accuracy would likely have a reduced impact on the difference between the trends of the modelled baseline and project line.

For the validation of modelled results, it should be assessed whether such a validation is necessary at each field or farm, or if instead Member States could be given the option to establish regional on-farm monitoring networks. Thess networks would be closely monitored, with models and quantification approaches independently verified over time to enhance transparency.

The Expert Group meeting included as well engaging discussions on quantification, sustainability, additionality, liability, and monitoring rules. These topics are currently being analysed through a series of workshops and will be further explored at the 2ⁿᵈ European Carbon Farming Summit, March 4-6, 2025, in Dublin. At MARVIC, we are actively working on tasks related to sampling strategies for MRV, modelling approaches, baseline definition, validation of carbon sequestration, and cost-accuracy analyses, among others, and are proud to continue contributing to the development of the CRCF Regulation.